Drivers of Instability, Conflict and Radicalization: A Snapshot From Akker

The influence of terrorist groups operating on the Lebanese-Syrian border, Hezbollah’s involvement in Syria, and the increasing sense of humiliation and powerlessness amongst Sunnis since Hezbollah’s takeover of west Beirut in 2008 is breeding concern about the radicalization of Lebanon’s Sunni community. The purpose of this case study is to identify drivers of radicalization of Sunnis in Akkar, particularly in Halba and its surrounding areas, and to examine any motivations to contest the Lebanese state. Through this case study, Levant7 aims to i) determine trends in the radicalization of Sunnis in Lebanon; ii) contribute to the understanding of the main challenges and best practices of conducting research on this issue; and iii) inform the preliminary design of stabilization, community resilience, and countering violent extremism (CVE) programs in the country. Between November 19 and December 5, 2014, Levant7 led a quantitative survey of 400 respondents and carried out ten key informant interviews in Halba and its surrounding areas. Results suggest that the perceived illegitimacy of the government and its inability to provide security and services has led to a widespread feeling of disenfranchisement and distrust. This has been compounded by political infighting and the weakening of social ties amongst the Lebanese and between Lebanese and Syrian refugees. These factors, along with the involvement of Hezbollah in the war in Syria, are motivating some Sunnis to sympathize with Islamist groups. These sympathies are exacerbated by the inability of the government and moderate Sunni leadership to address the consequences of the refugee crisis. Results show that 14% of respondents are neutral towards Jabhat al-Nusra, while 1.5% is neutral towards the Islamic State. It is important to note that the likelihood of people openly supporting these groups is very small, therefore the expression of neutrality may actually suggest a certain degree of sympathy. A significant relationship was found between being neutral towards Jabhat al-Nusra and not relying on anyone. In addition, there is a negative correlation between neutrality towards the Al Qaeda affiliate and trust for the Lebanese Security Forces, which shows that those who are neutral towards Jabhat al-Nusra tend to distrust the army and internal police. Results also indicate a division in the moderate Sunni constituency: while many supporters of the Future Movement are neutral towards Jabhat al-Nusra, others are against it. Results show no relationship between poverty and sympathy for terrorist groups, but there is a significant positive correlation between having neutral views of Jabhat al-Nusra and being underemployed1 . Several key informants suggested that both the Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra are distributing money to recruit Sunni youth, while supporting religious leaders with extremist views. Based on these results, Levant7 recommends implementing stabilization, community resilience, and CVE programs to: • Improve the level of social cohesion • Improve the municipal government outreach and service delivery to refugees and host communities • Increase employment opportunities and access to finance • Improve the level of trust in the Lebanese Security Forces • Develop or strengthen the Lebanese political leadership at the local level • Delegitimize Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State and strengthen alternative influential figures